Brian Mackey, Scientist
WeatherPredict Consulting, Inc.

Hurricane Andrew struck South Florida on what was to be the first day of my senior year of high school in 1992.  I was living in Palm Beach County at the time, and although the core of the storm stayed well south of my location, it was close enough to give us all quite a scare.  Looking back on the event 20 years later, I now realize how unprepared we all were that day for a category 5 hurricane.  It was a monster, and we did not truly understand its severity until news helicopters discovered the considerable devastation while flying over southern Dade County.  I remember the droves of volunteers steaming into the area, hardly knowing where they were at, as street signs were missing and stop lights were out.  The zoos and parks were not immune to the destruction as well, and I recall helping to clean up Monkey Jungle one weekend as part of a school trip.  This storm was a prime example of the awesome power of hurricanes.

Prior to Andrew, I already knew that I wanted to major in meteorology at the university level.  This event certainty did not take away from this desire, and in fact, it only strengthened my interest and determination to study tropical cyclones.  I remain optimistic that the state of the science will progress further so that we can more clearly understand and model intensity changes and provide even better short-term warnings with the necessary lead time.

Dr. Eric Williford: Senior Scientist,
Head of Operational Forecasting, WeatherPredict Consulting, Inc.

During Andrew, I was in the midst of a Ph.D. program at Florida State University with Dr. T. N. Krishnamurti and was focusing on extra-tropical cyclone development, especially in the Gulf of Mexico.  While Andrew wasn’t the determining factor in why I became interested in tropical meteorology, it did surprise me and others in our lab.  How did a small tropical system, nearly dissipating in the open Atlantic, become such a tenacious powerhouse and impact Florida and Louisiana so significantly?  Andrew did entice me to get more involved in tropical modeling and prediction, especially with regard to how to improve forecasting skills.   I worked on numerical modeling and real-time prediction efforts and switched to tropical cyclone prediction for my dissertation topic.  From these and other studies, our research group was approached by RenaissanceRe while involved with a study at Risk Prediction Initiative in Bermuda.  In collaboration with science leaders at RenaissanceRe, we created a state-of-the-art real-time forecasting platform via a five year research grant between RenaissanceRe and Dr. Krishnamurti’s lab at Florida State.

From these efforts, we developed the Superensemble forecasting technology to improve forecasting skill.  This ultimately led to the start of Weather Predict (and eventually, WeatherPredict Consulting Inc., a U.S. affiliate of Renaissance Re Holdings, Ltd.)  We today still strive to improve our understanding of risk, including understanding tropical cyclone impacts and increasing forecasting skill, especially with the challenging intensity forecasts.  For the past 10 seasons, WPC has provided our real-time North Atlantic, North Eastern Pacific, and North Central Pacific tropical cyclone forecasts to NHC/NOAA to support their forecasting efforts, and we are proud to contribute to their mission of protecting life and property for our country.

Craig Tillman
President, WeatherPredict Consulting Inc.

When you look at the science of natural catastrophe risk, Hurricane Andrew in many ways was pivotal in focusing scientists, engineers and risk managers towards gaining a better physical understanding of this risk.  When I look back, it’s interesting how much our ability to characterize the potential impacts of extreme weather events has matured.   Andrew’s destruction motivated this – it affected my own professional concentrations and at WeatherPredict, many of our scientists can also point to the influence of the Andrew catastrophe on their careers.

What is commonplace today could not even be considered at the time of Andrew.   Our scientists now have the ability to investigate tropical cyclones through the use of numerical weather prediction models that capture the physics of these natural systems as they traverse across the ocean and make landfall on our coastlines – and they can do this a million times over to explore the complete distribution of outcomes possible.

The experience of Andrew motivated the development of stronger building codes in Florida, and indeed, Florida has become a proving ground for what stronger building codes could achieve.  Through the experience and leadership of Miami-Dade County in establishing some of the best building codes for severe winds, and the subsequent success of those building codes in the Florida hurricanes of 2004 and 2005, we now have the evidence in real savings that can motivate other states to follow suit.  Going forward from here, the focus needs to be on implementation and enforcement of those strong codes.

And the science of building stronger has been taken even further in recent years.  There are now several full-scale testing laboratories in the Southeast that can test actual buildings in the realistic conditions of hurricane winds and rain.  It started with the establishment of the RenaissanceRe Wall of Wind at Florida International University, but has perhaps reached its full potential with the Research Center of the Institute for Business and Home Safety as well as a new Wall of Wind at Florida International University.  We don’t need to wait for another Andrew to devastate a city to understand what can be improved in our building stock – we are using these full scale testing laboratories to identify the best building and mitigation practices going forward.   Through numerical simulation and physical testing laboratories, a closer integration of meteorology and wind-engineering has increased our understanding of the risk of hurricane catastrophes.  Because the robust foundation now exists, the effects of climate change can be explored.

In my own career, first as a catastrophe risk consultant, then providing insurance coverage for properties at risk, and now leading an elite team of scientists, a significant evolution has been the integration of the science into business decisions.  More than ever before, the statistics of hurricane risk are communicated directly to corporate boards.  Because this risk is better quantified, managers and property owners are now making investments towards resilience in the face of this continuing threat to our coastal states.   At WeatherPredict we are acutely aware of the positive impacts that natural catastrophe science can have on making communities more resilient.  We recognize the unique privilege we have in working on problems that affect so many people and of course this drives our passion for connecting our capabilities to real world decisions.

After an intermission necessitated by Hurricanes Isaac, Leslie and Michael, today, we resume our Hurricane Andrew series with a post from Steve Weinstein, SVP RenaissanceRe Holdings Ltd. and Chairman, RenaissanceRe Risk Sciences Foundation.  Mr. Weinstein shares how Andrew changed everything from building codes to risk management to insurance claims handling and led to the creation of RenaissaneRe a business that has a mission to “better serve clients and at-risk communities.”

When Hurricane Andrew made landfall in 1992, our company, RenaissanceRe Holdings Ltd., did not yet exist.  Nor did many of the large, technically sound, publicly traded market participants we compete with today.  Management teams in our industry tended to believe that even extreme natural catastrophes were unlikely to give rise to more than $2 billion or so of insured losses; and accordingly, since the exposures were not deemed to be material, boards of directors and other key stakeholders of primary insurers and ultimate insureds devoted relatively little time to oversight of natural catastrophe risk.  The science of catastrophe modeling was in its infancy, and the art of deploying models for risk management was nascent.

Andrew, and twenty subsequent years of consistent innovation, changed all that.

By the summer of 1993, RenaissanceRe was in business, with a mission to deploy recent innovations in portfolio optimization, catastrophe modeling, dynamic risk management and other emergent sciences to better serve clients and at-risk communities.  In particular, we believed from our outset that a commitment to developing and utilizing expertise in risk modeling and analysis would help us both to underwrite risk effectively and offer fairly priced, consistent capacity for some of the world’s most perilous regions, including the US Southeast.  We were quickly joined by numerous competitors, some well-established firms, and by many new entrants, principally in the growing reinsurance market hub of Bermuda.

After the 9/11 tragedy and the large storms of 2004/2005, including Hurricane Katrina, new waves of capital and new competitors emerged to support catastrophe-exposed and other risks.    Many, if not all, of these competitors have embraced stochastic modeling, hazard-oriented risk analysis, and portfolio management techniques to enhance risk management and client service.   Successful modeling firms, university and government projects, and a generation of professionals have fostered accelerating innovation and enhancement of catastrophe modeling and risk perception.

But it is the depth of commitment to catastrophe risk analysis and to fostering a companywide risk management culture at RenaissanceRe that we believe is unique; it is both deep and broad across our organization.  Dedicated efforts to increase awareness about risk mitigation and encourage resiliency through the widespread adoption of effective mitigation strategies have been key components of RenaissanceRe research initiatives from our outset.  Among our other initiatives, in 2004 we partnered with the International Hurricane Research Center at Florida International University – not far from where Andrew made landfall – to develop a revolutionary testing facility: the RenaissanceRe Wall of Wind. Fully operational since 2007, the RenaissanceRe Wall of Wind generates 125 mph winds and associated rain to which full-scale structures can be subjected, and has served as a model for other important industry-supported initiatives.

In 2008, in partnership with FLASH®, State Farm® and Simpson Strong-Tie, we launched our award-winning attraction at INNOVENTIONS at Epcot® at the Walt Disney World® Resort.  Since its opening, “StormStruck: The Tale of Two Homes™”, an interactive exhibit combining “edutainment” with the exhilaration of experiencing what it might feel like to be in a severe storm, has communicated to millions of attendees cost-effective steps they might take to make their homes more resilient to windstorms.

Very few events can truly be called “game changers.”  But even with two decades of hindsight, Hurricane Andrew was indeed just that.  From building codes to modeling, from risk management to reinsurance, from construction to claims handling, no field of endeavor touched by Andrew was unchanged by it.  At RenaissanceRe, as we plan for our next two decades, we remain more committed than ever to working with clients, at-risk communities, policy-makers, academic experts and other interested parties to further develop ever more effective approaches to managing the increasing risks of hurricanes and other natural catastrophes.

FLASH offers the following insurance, safety and clean up tips as families begin the process of cleaning up after flooding associated with Hurricane Isaac.

Structural Considerations

• Outside
  • Check for building stability before entry – sticking doors at the top may indicate a ceiling at risk of collapse
  • Check foundation for any loose or missing blocks, bricks, stones or mortar.
• Inside
  • Assess stability of plaster and drywall – any bulging or swelling ceilings indicate damage that should be removed. Press upward on drywall ceilings. If nail heads appear, drywall will need to be re-nailed but can be saved
  • If prevent warping of wooden doors, remove and disinfect all knobs and hardware, and lay flat and allow to air dry completely.
  • Remove wet drywall and insulation well above the high water mark

Insurance Tips

• Take extensive photos and video for insurance claims. Only flood insurance typically covers damage from floods
• Remove damaged items from the home. If you need evidence of damage, save swatches (carpet, curtains, etc.) for your insurance adjuster

Clean Up

• Wash and disinfect all surfaces, including cupboard interiors with a solution of 1/2 cup bleach to 2 gallons of water.  Remove sliding doors and windows before cleaning and disinfect the sliders and the tracks
• Clean and disinfect concrete surfaces using a mixture of TSP (trisodium phosphate) and water. Mix according to manufacturer’s directions and apply to entire surface
• Liquid cleaners can remove mud, silt and greasy deposits. Liquid detergents work on washable textiles. Use diluted bleach if item is safe for bleach
• The National Archives Website has information on how to clean up your family treasures. Although it may be difficult to throw certain items away, especially those with sentimental value, experts recommend that if you can’t clean it, you should dispose of it, especially if it has come into contact with water that may contain sewage.

Home air quality considerations and mold prevention

• Clean and disinfect heating, air conditioning and ventilation ducts before use to avoid spread of airborne germs and mold spores
• Use fans and sunlight to dry out interior spaces
• To avoid growth of microorganisms, household items should be dried completely before they are brought back in the house. Although the drying process can take a long time, homeowners should be patient because it is necessary to keep a home’s air quality healthy. Some household items may take longer than others to dry, such as upholstered furniture and carpets.
• Remove wallpaper and coverings that came into contact with floodwaters. Don’t repaint or repair until drying is complete and humidity levels in the home have dropped

For more information on protecting your home from flooding, visit www.flash.org.

With many areas experiencing or predicted to experience flooding due to Hurricane Isaac, FLASH reminds residents to Turn Around, Don’t Drown®.  Just six inches of flowing water can knock a person off of their feet.  Eighteen to 24 inches of moving water can wash an SUV off of the road.  More deaths occur due to flooding each year than from any other thunderstorm or hurricane related hazard. Many of these casualties are a result of careless or unsuspecting motorists who attempt to navigate flooded roads. FLASH and the National Weather Service warns anyone who comes to a flooded roadway, “Turn Around…Don’t Drown”!

Follow these safety rules when flooding occurs in your area:

• Get to higher ground. Stay away from flood-prone areas, including dips, low spots, valleys, ditches, washes, etc.
• Avoid flooded areas or those with rapid water flow. Do not attempt to cross a flowing stream. It takes only six inches of fast flowing water to sweep you off your feet.
• Don’t allow children to play near high water, storm drains or ditches. Hidden dangers could lie beneath the water.
• Flooded roads could have significant damage hidden by floodwaters. NEVER drive through floodwaters or on flooded roads. Water only one foot deep can float away most automobiles.
• Do not camp or park your vehicle along streams and washes, particularly when threatening conditions exist.
• Be especially cautious at night when it is harder to recognize flood dangers.
• Monitor NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio or your local media for vital weather related information.

For more information on flood safety and how to keep your home safe from floods, visit www.flash.org.

Tropical systems bring the threat of flash floods, tornadoes and other severe conditions hundreds miles from the center of circulation.  FLASH recommends that families at risk for severe weather from Hurricane Isaac should have a battery-powered, hand-crank and/or solar-powered NOAA weather radio to alert them to tornado or flood activity.

NOAA Weather Radios:

• Broadcast watches, warnings, and advisories immediately from your local National Weather Service office.  They provide 24-hour, commercial-free warning information for all hazards that may affect communities served by local NWR broadcast.
• Should include seven frequency capability, Specific Area Message Encoder (SAME) technology and battery backup.
• NWR is available on the following megahertz frequencies: 162.400, 162.425, 162.450, 162.475, 162.500, 162.525, and 162.550.

Properly Placing a NOAA Weather Radio in Your Home

• External antenna may be needed if you are located more than 30 miles from the transmitter.
• Strobe lights, pagers, computers and text printers can be connected for the visually and hearing impaired

Helpful Web Sites

• Go to www.nws.noaa.gov/nwr to find the nearest NWR transmitter.